Why It’s Important to Not Overpay for Jeter

The legacy of that winter is apparent; aside from the overcommitments to A-Rod and Posada, Jeter probably expects to be treated similarly. Thankfully, Hal at least seems to have learned his lesson and may not be willing to repeat his mistakes, but that may just ratchet up the bad feelings on the part of Jeter, especially if he’s offered less than Posada signed for. This is where the hard feelings could come into play, and things could get messy in negotiations.

The second problem is simply production. While I think the Posada and A-Rod contracts were mistakes, at least you can say that both of those players were coming off of great seasons in 2007. Jeter, of course, is in much less fortunate circumstances, having just had the worst season of his career. And let’s not downplay this, Jeter’s season was really bad. It wasn’t a matter of luck, or a pesky injury to a finger or wrist limiting his productivity, Jeter just did not look good at the plate all season. He flailed wildly at pitches out of the zone His bat speed was noticeably reduced. Two out of every three balls he put in play were grounders. It was just an awful, awful season. But hey, there aren’t a lot of good shortstops out there, so in relative terms, Jeter was still in the top ten shortstops in the game as measured by fWAR. And with the Yankees not exactly swimming in shortstop prospects, that’s got to make Jeter worth something, right?

Well, yes and no. Jeter still has his value, there’s no doubt about that. The Yankees are probably going to start negotiating with the Captain above his actual market value. That is, there first offer to Jeter will probably be higher than any offer he’d get somewhere else. Ultimately, they don’t want Eduardo Nunez to be their starting shortstop next season, nor do they want to take a PR hit in having Jeter go elsewhere, though I think claims that this would hurt their bottom line are pretty wildly exaggerated. The potential problem is one of opportunity cost.

When you’re done reading this, click on over to Yankeeist and read Larry’s take on Adam Dunn. Like Larry, I’m a big fan of Dunn’s, and love to fantasize about Dunn wearing pinstripes, attacking the right-field stands at Yankee Stadium. That said, I agree with Larry that there’s very little chance that the Yankees will make a run at Dunn, which is sort of crazy because I doubt that Dunn will get much more than $40 million or so over 3 years when all is said and done. That’s not a lot of money for a team like the Yankees to acquire a hitter like Dunn, whose .379 wOBA last season would have been second on best on the Yankees…even though it was slightly below career average for Dunn. Did I mention that Adam Dunn is a very good hitter?

Look, I’m not talking about my money here. It’s the Steinbrenners’ money, and they can spend it however they want. But it does appear that Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t want to spend any more of it than he has been spending, and frankly I think he’d like to spend $10-20 million less of it per year than he is now. And that’s really the rub here; I don’t ultimately care how much money the Yankees decide to pay Derek Jeter, provided that it doesn’t impair their ability to put the best team they can on the field. “Edurado Nunez: starting shortstop” might not sound too good to me, but Eduardo Nunez and Adam Dunn sounds a lot better than Derek Jeter and no Dunn. Again, it’s not my money, and I’m not charged with running the team, but if I were Brian Cashman, I’d be begging Hal to let me play with my budget to get Dunn this offseason at a price that would probably mean a higher payroll in 2011, but come back down in 2012 when Posada’s contract clears. But that’s going to mean drawing a hard line with Jeter, probably somewhere around $12 million in AAV. That would mean a salary cut of about $10 million between 2010 and 2011 for the Captain.

The Yankees don’t owe Derek Jeter anything. His previous contract was the largest non-Alex Rodriguez contract in the history of baseball. In addition, Jeter has earned untold millions in endorsements that he would never have earned had he played for another team. His whole public persona, the character he plays, is fundamentally an extension of being a Yankee. Derek Jeter would not be Derek Jeter had he been an Astro or an Oriole or a Twin. Derek Jeter has been very, very, good for the Yankees, and in return they’ve been very, very, good to him. And now it’s time for that relationship to go in a different direction.

No matter what happens, the Yankees are going to pay Jeter more than anyone else will be willing to in 2011 and beyond. The question is going to be whether Jeter will be happy with that, or whether he’ll need to be paid like he’s still a superstar, the best player on the team even. Would Jeter pull a Johnny Damon? Frankly, I don’t know. But I do know that doing so would hurt Jeter a lot more than it would hurt the Yankees. It would basically destroy the “winner/team player” image Jeter has so carefully crafted over his career, and may even impact the depth of his relationship with the Yankees in the future. So whether Jeter would want to or not, I don’t think he ultimately can afford to pull a Damon, and the Yankees should use that leverage to the fullest. Especially since it may be the difference in adding another bat to help offset the potential decline of other players as the Bombers’ lineup gets older and older.

The Yankees are a team that’s got a lot of aging players who are still productive, but may be less so in a few years. Adding Cliff Lee will only add to fuel to that potential fire. While they shouldn’t necessarily mortage the whole future, this is an organization that needs to be doing everything it can to win as much as possible in the next 3-5 years. And if the payroll isn’t going to expand much beyond what is now, that means not giving Derek Jeter the sort of contract I’m sure he wants. As odd as it sounds to say…the Yankees just can’t afford that.

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